Future Directions: Outlook For Offshore Production Of U.S. Print Consumption(2)

By product.

Here are the printed product categories that have shown significant increases in foreign production over the last few years:

Books are by far the most import-threatened product category. The largest sales categories are in children’s picture/coloring books, technical and scientific books, and textbooks.

The second most threatened print category is miscellaneous printed materials such as basically general commercial printed materials such as advertising flags and banners, posters, calendars, etc.

Labels are the third largest category of printed imports.

Another category with a lower weight-to-value ratios and longer shelf life is greeting cards.

By run lengths.

Which print run lengths may be most suitable for offshore production?

Conventional wisdom suggests that mid-run lengths may be the most likely candidates. Short run lengths are more likely printed for “just-in-time” distribution so may be more easily produced domestically. This is especially true for the emergence of printing for “one-to-one” marketing and transactional printing using digital presses where immediate communication is needed.

Current trends show short-run print growing as a result of digital technology and the increasing targeting and personalization of much of direct marketing, so this should decreasing the share of U.S. print consumption moving offshore. At the same time large, longer-run print jobs like tents printing are capturing a declining share of total print production which pushes in the opposite direction.

By print and ancillary service mix.

The latest PIA/GAFT data indicate that about 10% of printers’ revenues currently are derived from various ancillary services such as data base management, mailing and fulfillment, creative design, and others. To that extent that these value-added services create a deeper relationship with domestic customers, we can say that they increase the likelihood of domestic production.

In summary there are several factors that should help to keep U.S. print production onshore for the intermediate future. These include:

Print’s weight-to-value ratio.

Print’s direct labor content.

U.S. printers’ productivity growth and workflow efficiency

The growth of value-added ancillary services.

The growth of targeted and personalized marketing coupled with digital printing.

The current small base of imports and exports.

Printing and the U.S. mail stream.